NOAA: Mid Rainy Season 2025 Update - Drier than Normal Across Much of South Florida

The first half of the 2025 South Florida rainy season can be characterized as noticeably drier than normal over the eastern half of the area, in particular metro SE Florida. Western areas of South Florida, including the Gulf coast and Lake Okeechobee areas, have received near to a little above normal precipitation during the first half of the rainy season.

Across SE Florida, rainfall is generally running 5 to 10 inches below normal. On the other hand, portions of the SW Florida Gulf coast and near Lake Okeechobee are running about 2-4 inches above normal. Interior sections of South Florida are about 2-3 inches below normal, with the far southern Everglades in the 4-6 inch below-normal range.

The extended nature of the drier than normal conditions across SE Florida have led to the persistence and even some deterioration of spring drought conditions all the way through the first half of the wet season, something that is quite unusual.

Extreme (D3) drought conditions are present across the Everglades of Miami-Dade County, with severe (D2) drought conditions over the remainder of SE Florida including metro areas of Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties. Conversely, drought conditions considerably improve as you go west, with no drought from northern Collier County through most of Hendry and Glades counties including Lake Okeechobee. Lingering abnormally dry (D0) conditions remain over western Collier County.

Outlook for the Remainder of the Rainy Season (August to October)

The latest outlook by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center for the second half of the rainy season is leaning slightly towards above normal precipitation, based primarily on long-range model predictions and the possibility of more active tropical systems during the peak of hurricane season. However, this is a low-confidence forecast, as reflected by the 33-40% chance of above normal precipitation.

Rainfall during the second half of the rainy season is typically influenced in large part by tropical waves and tropical disturbances, as well as any tropical cyclones which may affect the region. Early-season cold fronts start to have more of an influence during the final few weeks of the season.